Given the freedom I have to blog today I chose to do so on the apparent revolution that is sweeping through Arab nations particularly Egypt. Two important historical facts make this revolution a little less than a certain success. Right now Egypt has a significant number of educated young people who are secular but jobless. Moreover the time period that we live in exacerbates the impossibility of using the army against people. In this point it should also be noted that unlike other countries of the region that have a short past, the Egyptian culture and history is millennial old and not unforgotten. Egyptians are aware of this and therefore act with prudence and judgment.
So what do I think the protest will lead to? Well in honesty it is impossible to tell. Certain facts that are certain is that the army will not move against its people. Right now the army faces a complex dilemma. It is tired of Mubarak and it cannot fire on the young citizens of the country. Doing so will immeasurably tarnish the reputation of the forces in a country where they are put on a pedestal. Again, it is Egyptian culture to treat youth with lenience.
As far as the escalation of revolution following the Prez’s speech yesterday, I would say yes it will escalate. The trouble is that mobs are fickle and the national sentiment is explosive. The worst thing that can happen out of this is either a boom of activity followed by shriveled up continuance. Or a chain reaction that lays complete waste to the land of the pharaohs.
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