Starategic scenario in South Asia.

"Strategic scenario", huh? Its a big cool word which might give people a sense that this post is not for commoners. It is an irony though, that the problem this post conveys can be solved only if the common people understands it. So let me start with a story I once heard.

Back when the British were still masters of our country, in the town of Jamshedpur there lived two Indian boys, Ram and Nitish. They went to a missionary school were a british boy, Eric also came. Eric was richer and often used his money and the inborn superiority complex to gain his friends. Nitish being quick witted joined Eric's gang and often joined the English boy in ragging others including Ram. Independence changed that. In a stroke, all of Erics power was stripped and he faced the reality of leaving India. Nitish, forever quick, struck up a friendship with Ram. In one quick and sudden moment of history, the rolesof the people in the game changed.

Something very similar is happening all around us in te neighbourhood we call South Asia.

There are two very powerful forces in world diplomacy and relations. The power of brute military and economic force, also called hard power and the power of integrity, honesty, righteousness and values, also called soft power. The very nature of India's independece(non violent) ensured that we inherited considerable amount of soft power. We used this, judiciously dring the cold war. Since the end of the 90s, we have used soft power to achieve several quick and decisive foreign affairs objectives.

1. Substantial progress with Pakistan under Musharaff


2. Indo-US nuclear deal


3. NSG waiver


4. To be seen as a possible counter to China


5. Warming relationship with East Asia


6. Closer ties with EU in military sphere


7. Retention of close Russian ties despite flourishing contact with USA.

These objectives set us up as a crucial great power and a future world power, especially when the USA considered us to be an effective counter to China. The support we got from the one super power was tremendous. Things now are different

Today, April the 23rd, 2010. Five days before the 2010 SAARC summit in Bhutan things are much more grim for India. Pakistan is belligerent over every issue even terrorism, China is testing the Indosphere, creating naval bases in southasian countries of Myanmar, Sri lanka, bangladesh, Pakistan and maldives.

How did we reach this mess. It started on a night nearly a year ago, in a country far far away, with the words, "America is a place where all things are possible". Barrack Obama, 44th president of the United States, will prove just that. What we Indians thought impossible is now quickly becoming our fate. Obama was faced with two quick and obvious long term popular decisions.

1. Withdrawal of troops from Iraq


2. Withdrawal of troops from Afghanistan

As a clever man he realized that the latter would be much more difficult than the former. Iraq is relatively straightforward, compared to the cauldron of Afghanistan. To ensure future stability of that country would require not just the support of a faction of the taliban, but more that of its immediate neighbour, Pakistan. As prudence has always guided american policy Obama gave Pakistan an important bargain chip. One that could be effectively used to pressure India to remain amicable to Pakistan after 28/11.

Pursuing his direct policy to China Obama has attempted to neutralize the Chinese threat and turn it into a meaningful co-operation by directly engaging with Beijing, sidelining India. China and Pakistan have excellent foreign relations and they know when 1+1=2. India is being hit on two fronts by the USA.

What can India do? History has shown us that at defferent times we find different ways to succeed. Soft power took us through for a decade, but pure reliance on soft power use with Pakistan is getting us nowhere. It is neccesary that India demonstrate a trace of its hard power, in making firm demands and other affirmative actions to ensurethe establishment of its superiority in South Asia. Otherwise, the once China containment which has already meted away will slowly but surely become the Indian containment. A show of will by the Indian people, government and military can do wonders. It is sullying to hear the foreign minister of Pakistan, Mr Qureshi say India is coming back to talks on its knees.

What about America? The decisions taken by Mr Obama have logic, but are nevertheless wrong. Afghanistan has never been a dear friend of Pakistan, but one of India's. By restricting Indian influence at the behest of Pakistani request, he is handing over control of one failed state to another failing one. Pakistan neither has the will or acumen to achieve the Obama objective. The identity of the Pakistani nation is itself built around anti Indian beliefs. As for China, well the chinese are powerful. Mr Obama is still making one fundamental mistake in foreign affairs. Never trust a friend who is not of your flock. Especially when he is as big as you. Obama is turning sour the opinion of america in the only true democracy of south asia. As he does so he may find out that he has achieved a narrow sighted domestic target at the loss of complete american strategic gains in Asia, and by 2030, the Eastern hemisphere.